I think it is safe to say that we live in a society that champions instant gratification. Whether it be in our lifestyles, financial priorities, or our communicative practices, we desire to receive just as fast as we give. In this, It becomes evident that what we most value is this innate essence of the now. We say “go with the flow” and we praise the glorious “present of the present! ” In today’s world we give no regard to yesterday and blind our eyes to tomorrow, however, like all things, there are exceptions to this rule. One lucid exception is the 2016 presidential election.
The names “Trump” and “Clinton” suffocate our ears and the sounds of guns shooting, ISIS shouting, and the poor begging for their promised share of the American Dream consume our minds. With this, it would only make sense for there to be a myriad of predictions made by everyone from the everyday common man to the highest of the higher-ups. We often think that what is happening now, is what is going to determine the future, we think polls are the crystal ball that tells us who our next president will be, however, we so easily forget the true determinant of the future: the past.
Right now, a man that conservatives know all too well, Ted Cruz, is dominating in the Iowan polls. At 26. 7 percent, Cruz only trails current republican front runner Donald Trump by 1. 1 percent. This sounds as though the odds are in Cruz’s favor, but if history has ever taught us anything, it’s that you can not rely on poll numbers to lead you to victory. It is important to note that in 2008, in the weeks leading up to the Iowa caucus, former mayor of New York City Rudy Giuliani was far ahead in the GOP polls, and the same thing for the Clinton in for her respective party’s polls that year.
See, the world of politics is one of the most unpredictable ones out there, but with certainty I can say this: With the 2016 elections inching closer every second and the primaries even faster, there is an increased intensity in this battle for ultimate triumph, meaning it is quite likely that there will be hard falls from glory and I think Mr. Cruz will be one of them. Let’s make this clear: Ted Cruz is the dictionary definition of a politician. He is incredibly merited in his craft.
The forty-five year old Canadian-born was raised in Houston Texas, where he was propelled to later attend both Princeton University and Harvard Law School. He served as a lawyer, and was a well-known, award-winning debater, although, his first official political gig was in 2000 when he served as George W. Bush’s political adviser during his presidential campaign. Later, in 2013, he became a senator for the state of Texas. So all though fairly new to the game, he knows how to get get elected, and there is one group that is incredibly instrumental in all of his political success: The Tea Party.
This ultra conservative and quite controversial organization started in 2004 with a movement they claimed began in 1773 with the “brave souls of men and women” during the Boston Tea Party, hence their name. They are rooted in the fundamental truths of the constitution and are extremely evangelical, for they desire to implement the Christian teachings of the Bible into moral code of our country. Although this traditionalist group has aided him tremendously in the smaller-scale elections, it may prove to be a vice in the largest election this country has to offer.
Like I said before, we live in a new world. It is more current,and far more progressive, and with the advent of the social media driven campaigning, there is a surge of younger ideology presenting itself in politics. But it’s not only the liberal voters that Cruz would have to worry about, he also must concern himself with his own Republican party. Again, history is important, and we all know the history of the Tea Party in congress. With about 40 members, they single-handedly allowed the government to shut down in 2013 when taking a stance on the disapproval of ObamaCare.
The Tea Party, splits the republican vote, and most conservatives would generally rather there be any republican in office than not at all. Notoriously,a split ballot will result in the opposite party taking office, So I think simply by association he’s in danger, however the he also has to worry about his own Tea Partiers. Sarah Palin, the darling of the group, lend her support to Donald Trump, an incredibly lofty blow on Cruz’s campaign. But for Iowa voters, the endorsement that really kicks him is Phyllis Schlafly, a woman famous for her Anti-Equal Rights Act protests, who decided to lend her support to Trump as well.
As if that wasn’t bad enough, The governor of Iowa advised his citizens to vote against Cruz. Although you could argue that when people speak against candidate at such high rates it means that they are scared of their potential success (Like Trump), however in this scenario, I think it’s bad news. It’s not only the actions of other people that hurt Cruz’s campaign however, it is his past actions, whether he could help doing them or not. Like where he was born for instance. Until just two years, Senator Cruz had duel citizenship.
He was both a Canadian and an American citizen, but later denounced the former despite being born there. A few people had issues with that however. According to the constitution, Cruz is an American citizen because his mother was, But those coined as “birthers” are renouncing this claim and one man, named Newton Schwartz of Utah, is even filing a lawsuit to question Cruz’s eligibility when running for president. Though in this situation, many political annalists agree that it won’t hurt his campaign too severely. What could hurt him the most is himself.
Cruz, when running for senator, failed to disclose loans up to $500,000 from Goldman Sachs, which can come off as markedly hypocritical, for in the same run he used those loans he also frequently talked against Wall Street bailouts and the hefty impact big banks have on our government and our politics. For many campaigns of yesteryear, acts like this resulted in a termination of his or her run, but for Cruz, he seems to keep afloat. Now for all these things that I have mentioned, There always shows a counter that argues what he does is not bad, and in turn will not affect his campaign.
But the problem is is that little things start to add up and, although we tend to live in the “now,” we mustn’t forget that the election is still nearly 10 months away, and for all these things to make Cruz seem, distrustful, dishonest, “unamerican,” and weak to come out in such a short period of time, who knows what to happen in the coming months. Who would have that that an odd little scream from an odd little rally would destroy Howard Dean’s Campaign in 2004?
Maybe having a nutty partner like Sarah Palin caused the demise of John Mccain’s chance at winning the presidency in 2008? Who Knows? Politics are a lot of things but predictable is not one of them. So I really don’t know but I personally think Cruz can’t win the national election and I don’t think he will get the nomination either, but hey, I’m just a seventeen year old girl who is diving in the inception politics in high school, so what do I know? Or maybe, just maybe, this game is just so confusing that I know just as much of what’s going to happen as our pal Ted Cruz does.
